2021-08-03 債券收益率下降推動現貨黃金價格回到200日均線
債券收益率下降推動現貨黃金價格回到200日均線Neils Christensen
Monday August 02, 2021
The gold market has found a new bounce in its step, with the cash market retesting its 200-day moving average as bond yields continue to drop.
黃金市場在其步伐中發現了新的反彈，隨著債券收益率繼續下降，現貨市場重新測試其200天移動平均線。
Bond yields in New York 's afternoon session dropped to a session low of 1.16%, which in turn has pushed spot gold prices to $1,815.40 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day. Gold 's futures prices on Comex are still trading under the 200-day moving average but are near session highs.
紐約午後債券收益率跌至盤中低點 1.16%，進而推動現貨金價至每盎司 1,815.40 美元，當日基本持平。 Comex 的黃金期貨價格仍在 200 天移動平均線下方交易，但接近盤中高點。
December gold futures last traded at $1,819.50 an ounce, up 0.13% on the day. Bond yields and gold started to move after data showed slower than expected growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
12月黃金期貨最後交易價格為每盎司1,819.50美元，當日上漲0.13%。在數據顯示美國製造業增長低於預期後，債券收益率和黃金開始上漲。
The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing index showed a reading of 59.5% in July, down from June 's reading of 60.6%. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting to see a level around 60.9%.
供應管理協會表示，其製造業指數7月份為59.5%，低於6月份的60.6%。根據共識預測，經濟學家預計將達到60.9%左右的水平。
Some economists have noted that mixed economic growth in the last few weeks could force the Federal Reserve to halt its plans to cut back on its monthly bond purchase by the end of the year, which would be bullish for gold.
一些經濟學家指出，過去幾週的經濟增長喜憂參半，可能會迫使美聯準停止在年底前削減每月債券購買量的計劃，這將利好黃金。
Daniel Pavilonis, senior commodities broker with RJO Futures, said that gold continues to benefit from rising inflation pressures as the U.S. central bank is expected to maintain its ultra-accommodative monetary policies.
RJO Futures的資深大宗商品經紀人Daniel Pavilonis表示，由於預計美聯準將維持其超寬鬆的貨幣政策，黃金繼續受益於不斷上升的通脹壓力。
He added that the latest fuel to the inflation heat is the U.S. government 's $1 trillion infrastructure bill, which continues to wind through Congress.
他補充說，通脹高溫的最新燃料是美國政府的1兆美元基礎設施法案，該法案繼續在國會通過。
"No matter where you look, inflation is here, and the Federal Reserve is going to remain accommodative," he said. "The infrastructure bill is going to be incredibly inflationary, and that will be good for gold."
“無論你往哪裡看，通脹都在這裡，美聯準將保持寬鬆，”他說。“基礎設施法案將導致令人難以置信的通脹，這對黃金有利。”
"Gold has managed to push back to its 200-day moving average, and if it can stay here, we could see a big move to the upside," Pavilonis added.
“黃金已成功推回其200天移動平均線，如果它能夠保持在這裡，我們可能會看到大幅上漲，”Pavilonis 補充道。
However, not all analysts are convinced that gold is ready to break out. Some analysts see gold still in a holding pattern, especially ahead of Friday 's employment report.
然而，並非所有分析師都相信黃金已準備好突破。一些分析師認為黃金仍處於持有模式，尤其是在周五的就業報告之前。
According to consensus reports, economists are expecting that 895,000 jobs were created in July. Some economists have said that a substantial employment number could prompt the Federal Reserve to reduce its monthly bond purchases by the end of the year.
根據共識報告，經濟學家預計7月份將創造895,000個工作崗位。一些經濟學家表示，大量就業數據可能促使美聯準在年底前減少每月購買債券的數量。
In an email comment to Kitco News, Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis, said that gold 's price action indicates a lot of indecision in the marketplace ahead of Friday 's employment report.
Darin Newsom Analysis總裁Darin Newsom 在給Kitco News的電子郵件評論中表示，黃金的價格走勢表明，在周五的就業報告發布之前，市場存在很多猶豫不決的情況。
Despite Monday 's positive price action, many analysts see gold trading in a range between $1,830 an ounce and $1,790 an ounce.
儘管週一價格走勢積極，但許多分析師認為黃金的交易區間在每盎司1,830美元至1,790美元之間。
In a note published Monday morning, Margaret Yang, market strategist at DailyFX.com, said that she is watching support at $1,790 an ounce in the near term.
在周一早上發布的一份報告中，DailyFX.com 的市場策略師Margaret Yang表示，她正在關注近期每盎司1,790美元的支撐位。
"Technically, gold prices may be forming a 'Double Top ' pattern after failing to breach the 1,835 resistance for a second try. Immediate support levels can be found at $1.790," she said. "The MACD indicator is flattening, suggesting that bullish momentum may be fading."
“從技術上講，在第二次嘗試未能突破1,835阻力位後，金價可能正在形成‘雙頂’格局。直接支撐位可以在1.790 美元，”她說。“MACD 指標趨於平緩，表明看漲勢頭可能正在消退。”
Some market analysts have noted that while gold has managed to turn around Monday, other important commodities have been struggling. Oil prices continue to see a sharp selloff Monday, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil fall to around $71 a barrel, dropping more than 3% on the day.
一些市場分析師指出，雖然黃金周一成功扭轉，但其他重要商品一直在苦苦掙扎。週一油價繼續大幅拋售，西德克薩斯中質原油跌至每桶71美元左右，當日跌幅超過3%。
By Neils Christensen
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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