2021-07-21 通貨膨脹“我們處於未經測試的水域”，真正的贏家是黃金等硬資產——前摩根大通董事總經理
'We're in untested waters' with inflation and the real winners are hard assets like gold – former JPMorgan MD通貨膨脹“我們處於未經測試的水域”，真正的贏家是黃金等硬資產——前摩根大通董事總經理
Anna Golubova
Tuesday July 20, 2021
Economies worldwide are in "untested waters" with explosive monetary and fiscal stimulus testing the limits of global financial stability, said Jon Deane, ex-JPMorgan MD and now CEO of Trovio.
前摩根大通董事總經理、現任 Trovio 首席執行官 Jon Deane 表示，全球經濟正處於“未經測試的水域”，爆發性的貨幣和財政刺激措施正在測試全球金融穩定的極限。
It is all about the massive policy response deployed to fight the COVID-19 crisis.
這一切都與為應對 COVID-19 危機而部署的大規模政策響應有關。
"We're in untested waters. It's a scenario that hasn't played out before," Deane told Kitco News. "After every major economic crisis that we've had, we've adjusted our economic thesis — how we approach markets from a central bank perspective and how we manage economies going forward," Deane pointed out.
“我們處於未經測試的水域。這是以前從未發生過的情況，”迪恩告訴 Kitco 新聞。 “在我們經歷過的每一次重大經濟危機之後，我們都調整了我們的經濟論點——我們如何從央行的角度看待市場以及我們如何管理未來的經濟，”迪恩指出。
And in response to COVID-19, governments around the world, including the U.S., have embraced very supportive fiscal and monetary policies.
為了應對 COVID-19，包括美國在內的世界各國政府都採取了非常支持的財政和貨幣政策。
"There is an excessive amount of debt on top of pretty much zero rates around the world," Deane said. "That debt is both at the corporate level and the individual level. It is a real concern if inflation gets out of hand."
“除了全球幾乎為零的利率之外，還有過多的債務，”迪恩說。“這種債務既存在於公司層面，也存在於個人層面。如果通脹失控，這是一個真正的擔憂。”
The main issue is how to taper inflation. "If the Fed starts raising rates in this environment, the impact on the economy will be quite significant. It's a real fine line that they have to walk whereby raising rates doesn't dramatically cause a huge U-turn in the economic stability that they've been able to create," Deane explained.
主要問題是如何減少通貨膨脹。“如果美聯儲在這種環境下開始加息，對經濟的影響將是相當大的。他們必須走一條真正的界限，即加息不會顯著導致他們的經濟穩定性發生巨大的掉頭。 '已經能夠創造，”迪恩解釋說。
This is a challenging environment for all central banks around the world to try and tackle. "Think of it from a percentage perspective. When interest rates are 6%, and you raise them ten basis points, the overall impact on a borrower is not that dramatic. However, if you're at 1% and you raise it by ten basis points, it is a 10% increase in your interest repayments. That has dramatic impacts," Deane stated.
對於世界各地的所有中央銀行來說，這是一個具有挑戰性的環境。 “從百分比的角度想一想。當利率為 6% 時，您將其提高 10 個基點，對借款人的總體影響並不那麼顯著。但是，如果您的利率為 1%，然後將其提高 10 個基點基點，你的利息還款增加了 10%。這會產生巨大的影響，”迪恩說。
The Fed has a tough job ahead — letting inflation run hot enough to try to inflate away the debt without letting inflation get out of control.
美聯儲面臨著一項艱鉅的工作——讓通脹升溫到足以試圖通過通脹來消除債務，同時又不讓通脹失控。
"That's the problem we face … We haven't had a disaster yet or a major issue yet. We are potentially at the precipice of that scenario whereby we don't know how to manage this. It's difficult to get out of this scenario," Deane noted. "We are likely to continue to try and kick the can down the road, and if inflation does pick up, the Fed will try to manage it, but not stifle it."
“這就是我們面臨的問題......我們還沒有發生災難或重大問題。我們可能處於那種情況的邊緣，我們不知道如何管理它。很難擺脫這種情況， ”迪恩指出。 “我們很可能會繼續嘗試把它踢下去，如果通脹確實上升，美聯儲將嘗試管理它，但不會扼殺它。”
Inflation is here to stay
通貨膨脹將繼續存在
There are currently two types of views dominating the marketplace when it comes to inflation. One argues that inflation, as the Fed says, is transitory. The other believes that it is secular and higher prices are here to stay.
目前，在談到通貨膨脹時，有兩種觀點主導著市場。有人認為，正如美聯儲所說，通脹是暫時的。另一個人認為這是長期的，更高的價格會繼續存在。
And while the Fed maintains that the higher prices are all about the pressure on the supply lines as economies worldwide reopen, Deane sees demand-driven inflation as part of the problem.
雖然美聯儲堅持認為，隨著全球經濟重新開放，價格上漲是供應線面臨的壓力，但迪恩認為需求驅動的通脹是問題的一部分。
"The market is not looking enough at what happened in asset inflation on the back of this huge amount of stimulus. That money is starting to be spent. We are creating demand-based inflation in the market," he said. "It's just natural for people to go out and say, 'I didn't have any dinners out last year, so I'm going to do it twice this year,' and that will cause inflation. That's definitely where I see inflationary pressures coming through."
“市場對巨額刺激措施的支持下資產通脹發生的情況關注不夠。這些錢開始被花掉。我們正在市場上創造基於需求的通脹，”他說。“人們出去說，‘去年我沒有出去吃飯，所以今年我要出去吃兩次飯，’這很自然，這會導致通貨膨脹。這絕對是我看到通貨膨脹壓力的地方走過來。”
What usually happens with higher demand for goods is that once prices and wage levels rise, they stay elevated. And that could be a problem when it comes to the Fed's flexible inflation approach.
商品需求增加時通常會發生的情況是，一旦價格和工資水平上升，它們就會保持高位。當涉及到美聯儲靈活的通脹方法時，這可能是一個問題。
"The Fed openly said it has a flexible approach to inflation, and it'll let inflation run hot. And that's a risky decision because it is hard to get inflation under control once it starts running hot," Deane said. "And we're in a period where the risk is much more skewed towards bigger inflation spikes. And that leads to higher asset prices, in particular defensive assets like gold."
“美聯儲公開表示，它對通脹採取靈活的方法，它會讓通脹升溫。這是一個冒險的決定，因為一旦通脹開始升溫，就很難控制住，”迪恩說。 “而且我們正處於一個風險更傾向於更大通脹峰值的時期。這導致資產價格上漲，尤其是黃金等防禦性資產。”
One wrong move and the Fed could be forced to raise rates quickly, undermining the health of the economic recovery.
一個錯誤的舉動，美聯儲可能被迫迅速加息，破壞經濟復甦的健康。
Outlook on gold
黃金展望
For Deane, the big winner here will be real assets, such as gold, hard commodities, and real estate.
對於迪恩來說，這裡的大贏家將是實物資產，例如黃金、實體商品和房地產。
"It's very much untested waters, and the outcome is unknown," he said. "For me, it's always about looking at the risk-reward. And to me, the reward is being long real-world assets or hard assets, and obviously, gold is central to that. From the assets side of things, hard assets are the major winners, whether it's real estate, gold, bitcoin, precious metals, hard commodities. They become winners."
“這是未經測試的水域，結果未知，”他說。“對我來說，它總是關注風險回報。對我來說，回報是做多真實世界的資產或實體資產，顯然，黃金是其中的核心。從資產方面來看，實體資產是大贏家，無論是房地產、黃金、比特幣、貴金屬、實體商品。他們成為贏家。”
He added that gold has held up well despite a higher U.S. dollar weighing on the precious metal.
他補充說，儘管美元走高對貴金屬構成壓力，但黃金仍保持良好狀態。
"Right now, the fair value for gold is between $1,800 to $1900. There's a lot of uncertainty around whether inflation is transitory or secular. Last year, gold was playing the role of a defensive asset. The 2021 roadmap for gold is more of an inflation trade rather than the uncertainty trade," Deane elaborated.
“目前，黃金的公允價值在 1,800 美元至 1,900 美元之間。通貨膨脹是暫時的還是長期的存在很多不確定性。去年，黃金扮演著防禦性資產的角色。黃金的 2021 年路線圖更像是一個通脹交易而不是不確定性交易，”迪恩詳細說明。
When it comes to trading gold, investors should be looking five years down the road.
談到黃金交易，投資者應該展望未來五年。
"What do we think is going to play out in regards to inflationary pressures? We've gone from being this sort of stepped approach to this explosion in the stimulus. What does it mean for the economy, and can the economy endure? Can we have the sort of policy response without a meaningful amount of growth in CPI?" Deane asked.
“我們認為在通脹壓力方面會發生什麼？我們已經不再採取這種階梯式的刺激措施了。這對經濟意味著什麼，經濟能承受嗎？我們可以嗎？有沒有CPI顯著增長的那種政策反應？”迪恩問道。
Most of the investors are happy with having a little money in gold right now, but that could start to change over the next year.
大多數投資者對現在持有少量黃金感到高興，但這種情況可能會在明年開始發生變化。
"We are starting to see these inflation prints. As that filters through the market, you'll see gold respond. Medium and long term, if my thesis is correct and this is secular inflation, we're going to see materially higher gold in the next 12-18 months. Gold can definitely trade at new all-time highs," Deane projected. "If I'm wrong on the inflation side and it is transitory, the positive for gold is that the positioning right now is not over the top. The risk-reward of gold today is very much skewed to the upside."
“我們開始看到這些通脹數據。當它滲透市場時，你會看到黃金做出反應。從中長期來看，如果我的論點是正確的，而且這是長期通脹，我們將看到黃金大幅上漲未來 12-18 個月。黃金絕對可以創下歷史新高，”迪恩預計。“如果我在通脹方面是錯誤的並且是暫時的，那麼對黃金的利好是目前的倉位並沒有超過頂部。今天黃金的風險回報非常偏向上行。”
Since the 1970s, all fiat currencies are based on the trust that governments have the ability to manage the economic stability of a nation, Deane added.
迪恩補充說，自 1970 年代以來，所有法定貨幣都基於對政府有能力管理國家經濟穩定的信任。
"If they lose the ability to control inflation, lose the ability to ensure job growth, lose the ability to ensure a safe society, then what naturally happens is a lot of these currencies get debased. That's what I think could also be a big catalyst for the materially higher hard asset prices," he said.
“如果他們失去了控制通脹的能力，失去了確保就業增長的能力，失去了確保社會安全的能力，那麼自然會發生很多這些貨幣貶值的情況。我認為這也可能是一個重要的催化劑因為硬資產價格大幅上漲，”他說。
By Anna Golubova
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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