2021-07-19 黃金投資者面臨擔憂之牆
Gold investors facing their wall of worry黃金投資者面臨擔憂之牆
Neils Christensen
July 16, 2021
The gold market heard some fairly soothing words from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as he continued to downplay the inflation threat and reiterated that despite the talk, the central bank is not ready to shift its current ultra-accommodative monetary policies.
黃金市場聽到了美聯儲主席杰羅姆鮑威爾的一些相當安慰的話，他繼續淡化通脹威脅，並重申儘管有談話，但央行尚未準備好改變其目前的超寬鬆貨幣政策。
Despite this dovish stance, the gold market only briefly touched a one-month high. Looking at the price action, there is some obvious hesitancy among gold investors to move full-throttle back into the market. I think this all comes down to the inflation threat.
儘管採取了鴿派立場，但黃金市場僅短暫觸及一個月高位。從價格走勢來看，黃金投資者顯然對全速重返市場猶豫不決。我認為這一切都歸結為通脹威脅。
While Powell may be saying everything the market wants to hear, it is difficult to see how the looming inflation threat will be transitory. There are growing expectations that higher prices will be a lot stickier than central bank economists forecast.
雖然鮑威爾可能說出了市場想聽到的一切，但很難看出迫在眉睫的通脹威脅將是暫時的。越來越多的人預計，更高的價格將比央行經濟學家的預測更具粘性。
While a lot of investors focused on this week’s Consumer Price Index, which saw an annual rise of 5.4%, I think the more impactful numbers came from the Producer Price Index. The report said that annual headline inflation rose 7.3%, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.
雖然許多投資者關注本週的消費者價格指數，該指數的年增長率為 5.4%，但我認為更具影響力的數字來自生產者價格指數。報告稱，年度總體通脹上升 7.3%，為 2010 年 11 月首次計算 12 個月數據以來的最大漲幅。
The reality is that even if companies start seeing lower input costs, they aren’t going to necessarily pass those saving on to customers. Let’s use lumber as an example. In the first half of the year, lumber prices saw an unprecedented rally to stratosphere highs. In May, the U.S. home builders association noted that because of record-high lumber prices, the average price of a new single-family home increased by nearly $36,000.
現實情況是，即使公司開始看到較低的投入成本，他們也不一定會將節省的成本轉嫁給客戶。我們以木材為例。今年上半年，木材價格出現前所未有的反彈至平流層高位。今年 5 月，美國房屋建築商協會指出，由於木材價格創歷史新高，新單戶住宅的平均價格上漲了近 36,000 美元。
Lumbers prices made headlines again this week as the market has given up all of its gains from the first half of this year. Can we not expect that new homes will now cost $36,000 less?
本週木材價格再次成為頭條新聞，因為市場已經放棄了今年上半年的所有漲幅。我們難道不能指望現在新房的成本會降低 36,000 美元嗎？
More and more people are starting to wake up to the new reality that we are entering a new inflation regime. Even the world’s biggest asset management firm is jumping on the Bandwagon.
越來越多的人開始意識到我們正在進入一個新的通貨膨脹制度的新現實。即使是世界上最大的資產管理公司也加入了潮流。
BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday that the U.S. should brace itself for a period of higher inflation and wouldn’t rule out a sustained increase above 3%. At the same time, he also announced that 95% of BlackRock employees would get an 8% pay increase.
BlackRock首席執行官拉里芬克週三表示，美國應該為更高的通脹時期做好準備，不排除通脹持續超過 3% 的可能性。同時，他還宣布，BlackRock 95%的員工將獲得8%的加薪。
While this is positive for gold in the long term, the reality is that gold could suffer as the market and investors focus on the transition. As inflation picks up, interest rates will have to rise off the floor, which means opportunity costs to hold gold will rise.
雖然從長遠來看這對黃金有利，但現實情況是，隨著市場和投資者關注過渡，黃金可能會受到影響。隨著通脹回升，利率將不得不從最低點上升，這意味著持有黃金的機會成本將上升。
However, for gold investors, the important thing is to keep an eye on the long-term horizon. Interest rates will rise, but they aren’t going up very far and will still remain low compared to historical norms for the foreseeable future.
然而，對於黃金投資者來說，重要的是要著眼長遠。利率會上升，但不會升得太遠，在可預見的未來與歷史標準相比仍將保持在較低水平。
By Neils Christensen
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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