2021-07-14 (美國)價格連續第三個月攀升，同比上漲 5.4%
Prices climb for third straight month, hitting 5.4 percent year over year(美國)價格連續第三個月攀升，同比上漲 5.4%
July 13, 2021, 8:34 PM CST
By Ben Popken
Consumer prices rose for a third straight month in June, jumping by 5.4 percent year over year, as soaring consumer demand continues to outstrip supply.
消費者價格在 6 月份連續第三個月上漲，同比上漲 5.4%，因為飆升的消費者需求繼續超過供應。
The monthly Consumer Price Index, released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a broad measure of inflation for goods and services including groceries, airfares, cars and clothing, and shows how quickly prices are rising.
美國勞工統計局週二發布的月度消費者價格指數是對商品和服務通貨膨脹的廣泛衡量，包括雜貨、機票、汽車和服裝，並顯示價格上漲的速度。
The overall price jumps came in higher than economists' expectations of 5 percent. Used cars drove the increase, rising 10.5 percent. Food prices are still ratcheting up, increasing 0.8 percent, higher than May’s 0.4 percent increase. A few key items declined, with medical care and household furnishings and operations falling in June.
整體價格上漲高於經濟學家預期的 5%。二手車帶動了增長，上漲了 10.5%。食品價格仍在上漲，上漲 0.8%，高於 5 月份 0.4% 的漲幅。一些關鍵項目下降，醫療保健、家居用品和運營在 6 月份下降。
The price hikes are another side effect of the coronavirus pandemic. From the supermarket to the furniture store to the gas station, consumers are paying more to get the same — or even less. Shoppers are finding limited selection, slower service, longer waitlists, even shrunken ice cream containers.
價格上漲是冠狀病毒大流行的另一個副作用。從超市到家具店再到加油站，消費者為獲得同樣的東西付出了更多——甚至更少。購物者發現選擇有限、服務速度較慢、等候名單更長，甚至冰淇淋容器也縮小了。
Unleashed consumers continue to bid up goods and services, which are in tight supply due to shipping delays and worker shortages. That pushes up prices, as companies try to control demand. Some of those businesses are passing on increased costs to consumers. Meanwhile, stimulus spending and loose fiscal policy encourages shoppers to spend.
由於運輸延誤和工人短缺，這些商品和服務供應緊張，因此被釋放出來的消費者繼續抬高商品和服務。這推高了價格，因為公司試圖控制需求。其中一些企業正在將增加的成本轉嫁給消費者。與此同時，刺激性支出和寬鬆的財政政策鼓勵購物者消費。
Economists believe the consumer-driven economy needs some inflation to keep going and growing. The Fed has said the effects are "transitory" and has held firm to keeping interest rates low to stimulate growth. It’s a fine line for policymakers to walk.
經濟學家認為，以消費者為導向的經濟需要一定的通脹才能保持增長。美聯儲表示，這種影響是“暫時的”，並堅持保持低利率以刺激增長。這是政策制定者要走的一條細線。
"Too much and people accelerate spending to stay ahead of price rises, which of course has the effect of delivering even more inflation. And, as prices generally rise in advance of wages, consumers feel consistently behind the eight-ball," Daniel Alpert, a managing partner at Westwood Capital and a senior fellow in financial macroeconomics at Cornell Law School, said in an email.
“太多了，人們加速支出以保持在價格上漲之前，這當然會導致更多的通貨膨脹。而且，由於價格通常在工資上漲之前上漲，消費者始終認為自己落後於八球，”丹尼爾阿爾珀特， Westwood Capital 的管理合夥人、康奈爾法學院金融宏觀經濟學高級研究員在一封電子郵件中說。
With deflation, "commerce slows as no one is in a rush to spend on that which might cost less tomorrow, and wages don't grow ... but asset bubbles form as interest rates collapse and capital is mis-allocated," he said.
在通貨緊縮的情況下，“商業放緩，因為沒有人急於將錢花在明天可能會更便宜的東西上，工資也不會增長……但隨著利率崩潰和資本分配不當，資產泡沫形成，”他說。 .
But inflation that is too high also has problems. If prices rise too far, too fast, workers’ dollars don’t go as far. Investors may take their money elsewhere to get a better return.
但過高的通脹也有問題。如果價格上漲過快、過快，工人的美元就不會漲那麼多。投資者可能會將資金轉移到其他地方以獲得更好的回報。
Inflation is often presented as one big number that affects the economy in powerful seen and unseen ways, since the rate of price increases indicate how quickly the economy is heating up.
通貨膨脹通常被視為一個大數字，它以強大的可見和不可見的方式影響經濟，因為價格上漲的速度表明經濟升溫的速度。
June's CPI data showed that the inflation index was up 5.4 percent from the year before, the highest 12-month increase since August 2008. For families already struggling to pay the bills, any price increase is hard.
6 月份的 CPI 數據顯示，通脹指數較上年上升 5.4%，為 2008 年 8 月以來 12 個月以來的最高增幅。對於已經難以支付賬單的家庭來說，任何價格上漲都很難。
But it’s also a matter of perspective. What matters just as much as the overall number is the time frame it measures and where the starting point is set.
但這也是一個視角問題。與總數一樣重要的是它衡量的時間範圍以及起點的設置。
That 5 percent seen in May came as the economy was rebounding off the lows of the pandemic-induced recession as the starting point, or“base.”During the pandemic, demand and production has fallen at different points because of a health crisis, not underlying economic weakness. Going up from this artificial low makes the increase look even bigger, a distortion known as the“base effect.”
5 月份出現 5% 的增長是因為經濟正在從大流行引起的衰退的低點反彈，並將其作為起點或“基礎”。在大流行期間，由於健康危機，而不是潛在的經濟疲軟，需求和生產在不同的時間點下降。從這個人為的低點上升會使增幅看起來更大，這種失真被稱為“基礎效應”。
Measured from June 2019, before the pandemic hit, prices have indeed gone up 5 percent, but over two years.
從 2019 年 6 月開始衡量，在大流行來襲之前，價格確實上漲了 5%，但超過兩年。
That comes to an inflation rate of just 2.5 percent per year, a half-percentage point ahead of the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2 percent. The economic engine is running hot. But it’s not on fire.
這意味著每年的通脹率僅為 2.5%，比美聯儲 2% 的目標利率高 0.5 個百分點。經濟引擎正在火熱運轉。但它還未著火。
“Recent inflation figures have been more pronounced due to pent-up demand and supply chain constraints, but also because of the low bar of comparison against 2020 when price levels actually declined," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com, in an email. "This does support the viewpoint that the inflation we’re seeing is ‘transitory,’ however we can’t ignore the chorus of business owners pointing to rising labor costs. That tends to lead to sustained price increases.”
Bankrate.com 首席財務分析師 Greg McBride 表示：“由於被壓抑的需求和供應鏈的限制，最近的通脹數據更加明顯，而且與 2020年相比，價格水平實際上下降了。”一封電子郵件。“這確實支持了我們所看到的通脹是‘暫時性’的觀點，但我們不能忽視企業主指出勞動力成本上升的呼聲。這往往會導致價格持續上漲。”
Individual categories of goods from the overall index show that not all items are rising at the same rate. Some are even falling.
總體指數中的個別商品類別表明，並非所有商品都以相同的速度上漲。有些甚至正在下降。
Used car prices are up 36 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis since June 2019 as shipping and production issues have crimped the supply of new cars, shifting demand. In May, increases in used car prices alone account for one-third of the overall CPI increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gas is up over 14 percent during this time, and food at home is up, almost 6 percent.
自 2019 年 6 月以來，未經季節性調整的二手車價格上漲了 36%，原因是運輸和生產問題限制了新車的供應，改變了需求。根據美國勞工統計局的數據，5 月份，僅二手車價格的上漲就佔 CPI 總體上漲的三分之一。在此期間，汽油價格上漲了 14% 以上，而家裡的食物價格上漲了近 6%。
But some items are down: Apparel is lower by 2.6 percent; toys, 7 percent; and televisions, 9 percent.
但有些商品下降了：服裝下降了 2.6%；玩具，7%；和電視，9%。
Other items are tracking the overall inflation rate and are slightly up, like new cars and trucks, rent, and child care.
其他項目跟踪整體通脹率並略有上升，例如新車和卡車、租金和兒童保育
This means that some consumers will get hit harder. Others may actually be able to save in parts of their budget, or not face as much rising prices. Don’t buy a used car, and you’ll swerve around one of the biggest inflation potholes.
這意味著一些消費者將受到更大的打擊。其他人實際上可能能夠節省部分預算，或者不會面臨如此高的價格上漲。不要買二手車，你會繞過最大的通貨膨脹坑洞之一。
There’s more critical context as well. The Fed has said these spikes should settle back down into healthy growth as it pursues the goal of “full employment,” where everyone who wants a job has one. However, recent Fed minutes show that the recent jump in prices has the central bank considering removing some fiscal supports earlier than it previously anticipated.
還有更重要的上下文。美聯儲表示，在追求“充分就業”的目標時，這些高峰應該會回落到健康的增長中，每個想要工作的人都有一份工作。然而，美聯儲最近的會議紀要顯示，近期物價上漲促使央行考慮提前取消部分財政支持。
The personal savings rate has gone up 75 percent as consumers saved more and spent less during the pandemic and received stimulus payment.
個人儲蓄率上升了 75%，因為消費者在大流行期間儲蓄更多、支出更少，並獲得了刺激性付款。
Wages are still below inflation, with average hourly earnings up 2.3 percent since June 2019. Prices have increased, but so has the ability of consumers to pay them.
工資仍低於通脹，平均時薪自 2019 年 6 月以來增長了 2.3%。價格上漲，但消費者的支付能力也在上漲。
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Source: nbcnews.com
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