2021-06-30 由於美元走強導致價格暴跌，黃金正處於 2013 年以來最糟糕的6月
Gold is looking at worst June since 2013 as prices plunge on stronger dollar由於美元走強導致價格暴跌，黃金正處於 2013 年以來最糟糕的6月
Anna Golubova
Tuesday June 29, 2021 13:20
Gold saw a sharp drop on Tuesday as prices touched 2.5-month lows and headed for the worst June performance since 2013.
由於價格觸及 2.5 個月低點，並走向 2013 年以來最糟糕的 6 月表現，黃金周二大幅下跌。
The yellow metal is trading down 7.6% on the month. On a month-on-month basis, gold is on track to see its worst performance since November 2016, when the precious metal dropped more than 8%. In June 2013, gold dropped 11%.
本月黃金交易價格下跌 7.6%。按月計算，黃金有望出現自 2016年11月以來最糟糕的表現，當時貴金屬下跌超過 8%。2013年6月，黃金下跌了11%。
At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,763.00, down 0.99% on the day.
在撰寫本文時，8月Comex 黃金期貨交易價格為1,763.00美元，當日下跌 0.99%。
This week's two main headwinds are a stronger U.S. dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields in the marketplace that is not seeing a lot of risk aversion. The U.S. dollar index was last trading at 92.03, up 0.13% on the day, while the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.488%
本週的兩個主要阻力是美元走強和市場上美國國債收益率走高，市場上沒有出現很多風險厭惡情緒。美元指數最新報92.03，當日上漲0.13%，而10年期國債收益率報1.488%
"A stronger dollar and rising interest rates on the day are seeing gold continue to bleed lower. Gold is in need of a catalyst to re-energize the market, as the lack of impetus to buy the yellow metal in the aftermath of the FOMC continues to suggest the bar is low for continued weakness," said strategists at TD Securities.
“當日美元走強和利率上升導致黃金繼續走低。由於FOMC*之後繼續缺乏購買黃金的動力，黃金需要一種催化劑來重振市場表明持續疲軟的門檻很低，”道明證券策略師表示。
*註: 聯邦公開市場委員會FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee): 聯邦公開市場委員會屬於美國聯邦準備系統，負責進行公開市場操作。公開市場委員會由12名委員組成，7名聯邦準備理事會成員都是委員，紐約聯邦儲備銀行負責執行公開市場操作，因此其行長也是委員。
This is a good time for the dollar because the U.S. is seen as the best place to be during the pandemic due to its quick vaccine rollout, said Karen Jones, team head of FICC technical analysis research at Commerzbank. "The U.S. is now the best place to be during the pandemic due to its fast and expansive vaccine rollout stemming what was once the world's worst outbreak," Jones wrote.
德國商業銀行 FICC 技術分析研究團隊負責人 Karen Jones 表示，這對美元來說是個好時機，因為由於疫苗的快速推出，美國被視為疫情大流行期間最好的地方。瓊斯寫道：“美國現在是大流行期間最好的地方，因為其快速而廣泛的疫苗推出阻止了曾經是世界上最嚴重的爆發。”
The quick spread of the Delta variant in other countries is providing additional support for the dollar by drumming up its safe-haven quality.
Delta變異病毒在其他國家的快速傳播通過提高美元的避險質量為美元提供了額外的支持。
"Fear that the new mutation of the COVID virus will slow the global recovery has sent ripples across the global capital markets. The foreign exchange market has the clearest reaction, and the dollar is bid," noted Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist Marc Chandler.
Bannockburn Global Forex 首席市場策略師 Marc Chandler 指出：“擔心新冠病毒的新突變會減緩全球復甦，這在全球資本市場引發了漣漪。外匯市場反應最為明顯，美元被買盤。”
Gold has been having a tough time since it failed to breach the $1,900 an ounce level at the beginning of June. The technical position worsened after the mid-June selloff that was triggered by a hawkish Federal Reserve statement, which signaled two potential rate hikes as soon as 2023.
自 6 月初未能突破每盎司 1,900 美元的水平以來，黃金一直處於艱難時期。在 6 月中旬由強硬的美聯儲聲明引發的拋售之後，技術頭寸惡化，該聲明暗示最早可能在 2023 年加息兩次。
Fed officials also sound more confident this week, with Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin stating on Monday that the central bank has made "substantial further progress" toward its inflation goal in order to begin tapering.
美聯儲官員本週聽起來也更有信心，里士滿聯邦儲備銀行行長托馬斯巴爾金周一表示，美聯儲已在實現通脹目標方面取得了“實質性的進一步進展”，以開始縮減通脹。
"I'm pretty optimistic about the labor market ... If the labor market opens as I suggested it might, then I think we're going to get there in relatively short order," Barkin said.
“我對勞動力市場非常樂觀......如果勞動力市場像我建議的那樣開放，那麼我認為我們將在相對較短的時間內到達那裡，”巴金說。
All eyes are on the U.S. employment report, which is scheduled to be published Friday morning.
所有人的目光都集中在定於週五上午發布的美國就業報告上。
"Jobs data Friday will be the highlight for the week. Consensus sees 700k jobs added vs. 559k in May, with the unemployment rate expected to fall a tick to 5.7%," said BBH Global Currency Strategy head Win Thin. "As things stand now, we continue to expect a tapering announcement over the summer, with actual tapering by end-2021 and rate hikes by end-2022."
“週五的就業數據將是本週的亮點。市場普遍認為，5 月份新增就業崗位70萬個，而 5 月份為55.9萬個，失業率預計將下降至5.7%，”BBH 全球貨幣策略主管 Win Thin 表示。“就目前情況而言，我們繼續預計夏季會宣布減息，到 2021年底實際減息，到2022年底加息。”
A few things at play could turn this bearish gold price action around, including disappointing macro data out of the U.S., which could stall the Fed's tapering talks.
一些因素可能會扭轉這種看跌的金價走勢，包括美國令人失望的宏觀數據，這可能會阻礙美聯儲的縮減談判。
"As far as what could be a positive catalyst for gold, a broader data disappointment trend could eventually prove to offer support, as the market reflects on continued economic risks at a time when rates markets have priced a first hike in December 2022," TD Securities strategist added.
“就可能成為黃金的積極催化劑而言，更廣泛的數據令人失望的趨勢最終可能會提供支撐，因為在利率市場定價 2022年12月首次加息之際，市場反映了持續的經濟風險，”道明證券策略師補充道。
However, the real pace of inflation will remain distorted for months to come, which will make it hard to tell whether or not the Fed is pricing in its inflation expectations correctly.
然而，未來幾個月通脹的實際步伐仍將扭曲，這將很難判斷美聯儲是否正確地定價了通脹預期。
"While this offers hope for gold, underlying inflation trends will likely remain distorted for months, while the potential for a stronger jobs report this week could also inhibit positive flows into gold for now," the strategists wrote. "In this context, gold is not completely out of the woods just yet, with prices now quickly dropping toward the $1,730/oz region, which would open the door to another round of CTA selling."
策略師寫道：“雖然這為黃金帶來了希望，但潛在的通脹趨勢可能會持續數月之久，而本週就業報告強勁的可能性也可能暫時抑制黃金的積極流入。” “在這種情況下，黃金還沒有完全走出困境，現在價格迅速跌至 1,730 美元/盎司區域，這將為另一輪CTA*拋售打開大門。”
*註: CTA(Call to Action) 號召性用語(CTA)是一個營銷術語，指的是營銷人員希望其受眾或讀者採取的下一步行動。
By Anna Golubova
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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