2021-06-28 LAWRIE WILLIAMS：黃金和白銀：巴塞爾協議III的價格影響
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Gold and silver: Basel III price impactLAWRIE WILLIAMS：黃金和白銀：巴塞爾協議III的價格影響
27 Jun 2021
Basel III is due to be implemented for EU and US banks on Monday and, according to some analysts and observers it could have a huge positive impact on gold and silver prices, although others disagree. We prefer to remain neutral and undecided. UK banks are expected to comply by January 2022 after a rearguard action by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) to delay it. While Basel III directly affects gold, its knock-on effects for silver could also be significant.
巴塞爾協議 III 將於週一對歐盟和美國的銀行實施，據一些分析師和觀察人士稱，它可能對黃金和白銀價格產生巨大的積極影響，儘管其他人不同意。我們更願意保持中立和猶豫不決。在倫敦金銀市場協會 (LBMA) 採取後盾行動推遲該計劃後，預計英國銀行將在 2022 年 1 月之前遵守該規定。雖然巴塞爾協議 III 直接影響黃金，但它對白銀的連鎖效應也可能很顯著。
So what is the Basel III accord? It is an agreed-upon set of measures developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to try and prevent a similar global financial crisis to that which took place from 2007-2009 recurring. Much of the protocol is aimed at improving major bank economics and accountability and make them less liable to potential collapse. It involves stress testing, and controls on market liquidity and reliability. It is technically a voluntary code of practice but it is expected that most, if not all, major banks which trade internationally will eventually comply.
那麼什麼是巴塞爾協議III？這是巴塞爾銀行監管委員會制定的一套商定的措施，旨在防止類似 2007-2009 年發生的全球金融危機再次發生。該協議的大部分內容旨在改善主要銀行的經濟性和問責制，並使它們不太容易發生潛在的崩潰。它涉及壓力測試以及對市場流動性和可靠性的控制。從技術上講，這是一項自願性行為準則，但預計大多數（如果不是全部）進行國際貿易的主要銀行最終都會遵守。
What the impact is likely to be on gold and silver prices is a matter of some dissension among observers – most are either price bullish – some hugely so - on the potential outcome in this respect, or consider that things won’t change at all and the principal price driver will remain rising inflation and potential moves to control this trend, with silver taking its lead from gold for which there is a particular relevance from the Basel III proposals.
可能對黃金和白銀價格產生的影響取決於觀察家之間的一些分歧——大多數人要么看漲價格 - 有些人非常看漲 - 在這方面的潛在結果，或者認為事情根本不會改變並且主要的價格驅動因素仍將是通脹上升和控制這一趨勢的潛在舉措，白銀領先於黃金，這與巴塞爾協議 III 的提議特別相關。
Basel III, and its implementation, remains somewhat contentious and moves to apply it in full have been fraught with delays and prevarications in many jurisdictions – not least in the UK where the LBMA continues to exert pressures for further delays in its coming into force. It is technically a voluntary code but it is expected that most, if not all, major banks which trade internationally will eventually comply
巴塞爾協議 III 及其實施仍然存在一些爭議，並且在許多司法管轄區全面實施巴塞爾協議的舉措充滿了拖延和推諉——尤其是在英國，LBMA 繼續施加壓力以進一步推遲其生效。從技術上講，這是一項自願準則，但預計大多數（如果不是全部）進行國際貿易的主要銀行最終都會遵守
The principal immediate change affecting gold in the strictures coming into force tomorrow is that allocated holdings of the yellow metal are to be reclassified from a Tier 3 banking asset to a Tier 1 asset, which is currently designated for cash and currencies and considered the safest level of bank assets. By contrast Tier 3 – the old classification for all types of gold holdings – is considered to be the riskiest class for a bank’s assets, and applies also to equities, will still apply to holdings of unallocated gold. Currently it is thought that the majority of bank gold holdings is deemed as unallocated, so there will be a consequent move to replace much of these with gold which meets the classified designation.
在明天生效的限制中影響黃金的主要直接變化是，分配的黃金持有量將從第 3 級銀行資產重新分類為第 1 級資產，目前指定用於現金和貨幣並被認為是最安全的水平的銀行資產。相比之下，第 3 層——所有類型黃金持有量的舊分類——被認為是銀行資產風險最高的類別，也適用於股票，仍將適用於持有未分配的黃金。目前，大多數銀行持有的黃金被認為是未分配的，因此隨後將採取行動，用符合分類名稱的黃金取代其中的大部分。
Some analysts and gold observers are of the opinion that the proposed changes could make it more expensive to buy and sell unallocated gold, and thus drive the spot price for gold up –some think dramatically so. Others, as pointed out above, disagree, reckoning the changes will have little or no impact on spot gold or silver prices..
一些分析師和黃金觀察家認為，擬議的變化可能會使買賣未分配黃金的成本更高，從而推高黃金現貨價格——有些人認為如此。如上所述，其他人不同意，認為這些變化對現貨黃金或白銀價格幾乎沒有影響。
There is an opinion that the implementation of Basel III will bring market manipulation of gold and silver (if this exists) in the major futures markets to an end too. and the metals will at long last be allowed to find their true price levels. It certainly could put a major dent in the paper gold markets (hence the LBMA’s concerns) but whether that would in reality lead to massive gold and silver price changes remains uncertain. Markets would probably adjust, but could be subjected to a degree of volatility until they do so.
有觀點認為，巴塞爾協議III的實施也將結束主要期貨市場對黃金和白銀（如果存在）的市場操縱。金屬最終將被允許找到它們的真實價格水平。這肯定會對紙黃金市場造成重大打擊（因此 LBMA 對此表示擔憂），但這是否會在現實中導致黃金和白銀價格的大規模變化仍不確定。市場可能會調整，但在調整之前可能會受到一定程度的波動。
We, ourselves, are somewhat undecided on the likely price impact,on precious metals but recognise the assumed implementation on June 28th might well contribute to a degree of gold price volatility as the markets try and assess the likely fall-out. This volatility will likely continue until markets settle down. Less opinionated analysts do see a positive impact from the adjusted system, but perhaps only a gradual one. A year end price likelihood for gold of perhaps $2,100 or above has been mentioned, which ties in with our own forecast mad in December, immediately before Christmas.
我們自己對貴金屬可能的價格影響有些不確定，但認識到 6 月 28 日的假設實施很可能會導致一定程度的金價波動，因為市場試圖評估可能的下跌。這種波動可能會持續到市場穩定下來。不那麼固執的分析師確實看到了調整後的系統的積極影響，但可能只是一個漸進的影響。已經提到黃金的年終價格可能達到 2,100 美元或更高，這與我們自己在 12 月即聖誕節前夕的瘋狂預測有關。
Regarding the Basel III designations, it is important to understand the difference between allocated and unallocated gold. Allocated gold is when a bank, or one of its customers, buys physical vaulted gold. with that gold treated as belonging directly to the bank or customer. By contrast, unallocated – or paper – gold is more akin to a form of credit. It doesn’t have to be physical gold, held in a vault. Unallocated gold can be sold over and over again to separate entities or individuals, whereas allocated gold can only be sold the once..
關於巴塞爾協議 III 的指定，了解分配和未分配黃金之間的區別很重要。分配黃金是指銀行或其客戶之一購買實物保管黃金。該黃金被視為直接屬於銀行或客戶。相比之下，未分配（或紙）黃金更類似於一種信貸形式。它不必是存放在保險庫中的實物黃金。未分配的黃金可以反復出售給不同的實體或個人，而分配的黃金只能出售一次。
The net result of the changes is that there will be pressure to make allocated gold the preferred option for banks and their customers. That would, it is reckoned, put pressure on the supply of physical gold and potentially drive the price upwards. On the other hand it might well diminish the impact of trading in unallocated gold and thus also impact volumes traded on the futures markets. The LBMA, for example, is reported to be extremely anxious about its effect. The majority of LBMA trading is in unallocated gold with the amount of unallocated gold traded on a daily basis in London estimated at around $200 billion.
這些變化的最終結果是，將有壓力使分配的黃金成為銀行及其客戶的首選。據估計，這將對實物黃金的供應構成壓力，並可能推高價格。另一方面，它很可能會減少未分配黃金交易的影響，從而也會影響期貨市場的交易量。例如，據報導，LBMA 對其效果極為擔憂。 LBMA 交易的大部分是未分配黃金，倫敦每天交易的未分配黃金數量估計約為 2000 億美元。
There is an opinion that the Basel III implementation will thus help bring possible market manipulation of gold and silver (if this exists) in the major futures markets to a timely end and the metals will at long last be allowed to find their true price levels. It certainly could put a major dent in the paper gold markets (hence the LBMA’s concerns) but whether that would in reality lead to massive gold and silver price changes remains uncertain. Markets would probably adjust, but could be subjected to a degree of volatility until they do do.
有一種觀點認為，巴塞爾協議 III 的實施將有助於及時結束主要期貨市場中可能對黃金和白銀（如果存在）的市場操縱，並且最終將允許金屬找到其真實價格水平。這肯定會對紙黃金市場造成重大打擊（因此 LBMA 對此表示擔憂），但這是否會在現實中導致黃金和白銀價格的大規模變化仍不確定。市場可能會調整，但在調整之前可能會受到一定程度的波動。
However we do see even the partial implementation of the Basel III strictures as potentially positive for gold and silver, but whether this is sufficiently so to counteract – or complement – the effects of inflation expectations and their impacts on precious metals prices, is rather less certain, Consequently I remain on the fence with a strong interest in what the future holds for precious metals prices short term and long term..
然而，我們確實認為，即使部分實施巴塞爾協議 III 的限制也可能對黃金和白銀產生積極影響，但這是否足以抵消或補充通脹預期的影響及其對貴金屬價格的影響，則不太確定, 因此，我對貴金屬價格的短期和長期前景抱有濃厚的興趣。
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: sharpspixley.com
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