2021-06-18 為什麼美聯儲動搖市場後金價下跌近 100 美元？
Why is gold down nearly $100 after Fed shakes up markets?為什麼美聯儲動搖市場後金價下跌近 100 美元？
Anna Golubova
Thursday June 17, 2021 15:36
In just 24 hours, gold managed to lose nearly $100 after the Federal Reserve signaled higher inflation and updated its dot plot projections, showing a possibility of two rate hikes as soon as 2023.
在美聯儲發出通脹上升信號並更新其點圖預測並顯示最早可能在 2023 年加息兩次後，黃金在短短 24 小時內就下跌了近 100 美元。
The news triggered a surge in the U.S. dollar and a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which weighed heavily on gold. The precious metal's plunge was intensified by technical selling as gold tumbled below the $1,800 and came close to testing critical support at $1,770-60.
該消息引髮美元飆升，10年期美國國債收益率上升，對黃金造成沉重壓力。隨著金價跌破 1,800 美元並接近測試關鍵支撐位 1,770-60 美元，技術性拋售加劇了貴金屬的暴跌。
The market zeroed in on the upward revision to the PCE inflation forecast for 2021, which was raised a full percentage point – from 2.4% in March to 3.4%. This comes after very strong inflation readings in April and May.
市場關注對 2021 年 PCE 通脹預測的向上修正，該預測提高了整整一個百分點——從 3 月份的 2.4% 至 3.4%。這是在 4 月和 5 月非常強勁的通脹數據之後出現的。
During the press conference, which followed the Fed statement on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to reassure the markets that the central banks' dot plot, which showed that two rate hikes are possible as early as 2023, should be taken with a "big grain of salt."
在周三美聯儲聲明之後的新聞發布會上，美聯儲主席杰羅姆鮑威爾試圖向市場保證，央行的點陣圖顯示最早可能在 2023 年兩次加息，應該持以“不可盡信”態度。
He stated: "We did not have a discussion whether a lift-off is appropriate at any particular year. It is too early to talk about that. The dot plot is not a great forecaster of future rate moves."
他表示：“我們沒有討論在任何特定年份升空是否合適。現在談論這個還為時過早。點圖並不是未來利率走勢的好預測指標。”
Powell also reiterated that the Fed does view the spike in inflation as transitory, making comparisons to the surge in lumber prices, which are now settling down.
鮑威爾還重申，美聯儲確實認為通脹飆升是暫時的，將其與木材價格的飆升進行比較，後者目前正在穩定下來。
"Over time, these things driving up inflation will be temporary … The experience with lumber prices is illustrative of this. Prices that have moved up really quickly because of the shortages and bottlenecks should stop going up. And in some cases should actually go down. And we did see that in the case of lumber," he said. "Our expectation is that these high inflation readings that we're seeing now will start to abate. And it'll be like the lumber experience."
“隨著時間的推移，這些推高通脹的因素將是暫時的......木材價格的經驗說明了這一點。由於短缺和瓶頸而迅速上漲的價格應該停止上漲。在某些情況下實際上應該下降。我們確實在木材的情況下看到了這一點，”他說。 “我們的預期是，我們現在看到的這些高通脹數據將開始減弱。這就像木材的經歷一樣。”
However, the market has already made up its mind, viewing the Fed's June announcement as surprisingly hawkish, which is why gold suffered.
然而，市場已經下定決心，認為美聯儲6月的聲明令人驚訝地強硬，這就是黃金受挫的原因。
"The biggest surprise was that the median Dot Plot now sees two hikes in 2023 vs. none before," said BBH global head of currency strategy Win Thin. "We also got a shift for 2022 but not enough to change the median, with seven now seeing a hike next year vs. four in March."
BBH 全球外匯策略主管 Win Thin 表示：“最大的驚喜是，點陣圖的中位數現在看到 2023年兩次加息，而之前沒有。” “我們也對 2022 年進行了調整，但不足以改變中位數，現在有7 個明年加息，而3月份則是4個。”
For gold, the market's reaction spelled out bad news.
對於黃金來說，市場的反應說明了一個壞消息。
"'Transitory' and 'hikes' don't mix," said strategists at TD Securities. "Yet, the Fed's dot plot provided a clear signal of a change in tone with the median showing 50bp of tightening by end-23. The FOMC showed its hand: while the Fed has continued to reiterate that the strength in inflation is 'transitory,' the officials' formal assessments of risks tilted strongly to the upside, with participants' uncertainty assessments for core PCE inflation rising notably, alongside their risk weightings for core PCE."
道明證券的策略師表示：“‘暫時性’和‘加息’不能混為一談。” “然而，美聯儲的點陣圖提供了一個明顯的基調變化信號，中值顯示到2023年底收緊50 個基點。聯邦公開市場委員會表明了立場：雖然美聯儲繼續重申通脹強度是‘暫時的， ’官員對風險的正式評估強烈傾向於上行，參與者對核心 PCE 通脹的不確定性評估顯著上升，同時他們對核心PCE的風險權重也顯著上升。”
Gold's significant pullback has room to run as speculative and physical flows slow, TD Securities added.
道明證券補充說，隨著投機性和實物流動放緩，黃金的大幅回調仍有空間。
"If inflation turns out to be truly transitory, the Fed should be happy to walk the hiking signals back," they said. "Unfortunately for gold bugs, underlying inflation trends will remain distorted for months — which removes the immediate impetus for buying the yellow metal," they stated.
“如果通脹真的是暫時的，美聯儲應該樂於收回加息信號，”他們表示。他們表示：“不幸的是，對於黃金臭蟲(深信黃金投資者)來說，潛在的通脹趨勢將持續數月之久——這消除了購買黃金的直接動力。”
Some analysts, however, view the drop in gold as excessive, especially considering that the precious metal already walked back some of its price gains in the days before the Fed's announcement.
然而，一些分析師認為黃金的下跌過度，特別是考慮到貴金屬在美聯儲宣布前幾天已經回吐了部分漲幅。
"Admittedly, the combination of a noticeably firmer U.S. dollar and higher yields poses quite a burden for gold. Whether it justifies a price slide on this scale is another matter, however. After all, gold had already fallen in recent days in anticipation of a possible change in direction on the part of the Fed," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch. "Rate hikes in two years' time are too far off to warrant any such slump in price, especially as yields are well below the expected rate of inflation."
“不可否認，美元明顯走強和收益率上升對黃金構成了相當大的負擔。然而，這種規模的價格下跌是否合理則是另一回事。畢竟，最近幾天黃金已經下跌，因為預期美聯儲可能會改變方向，”德國商業銀行分析師Carsten Fritsch 表示。“兩年後加息太遙遠，無法保證價格出現任何此類暴跌，尤其是在收益率遠低於預期通脹率的情況下。”
At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar index was trading at 91.85, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was fetching 1.506%, and August Comex gold futures were at $1,780, down 4.37% on the day.
截稿時，美元指數報 91.85，10 年期美國國債收益率報 1.506%，8 月 Comex 黃金期貨報 1,780 美元，當日下跌 4.37%。
By Anna Golubova
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引用: Kitco News
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