2021-06-17 黃金價格暴跌 40 美元，鮑威爾稱通脹將像“木材體驗”
Gold price plunges $40 as Powell says inflation will be like the 'lumber experience'黃金價格暴跌40美元，鮑威爾稱通脹將像“木材體驗”
Anna Golubova
Wednesday June 16, 2021 16:14
The gold space saw another significant selloff after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke about inflation, the Fed's dot plot, and clarified plans on tapering.
在美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾 (Jerome Powell) 談到通脹、美聯儲的點陣圖並澄清縮減計劃之後，黃金領域再次出現大幅拋售。
In response to the Fed's announcement, gold lost more than $40, with August Comex gold futures last trading at $1,812.40, down 2.37% on the day. Gold prices reacted to a rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which climbed to 1.58%.
受美聯儲公告影響，黃金下跌逾 40 美元，8 月 Comex 黃金期貨最新報 1,812.40 美元，當日下跌 2.37%。黃金價格對美國 10 年期國債收益率攀升至 1.58% 做出反應。
Markets focused on a few items from the Fed statement, including higher inflation expectations for this year and a possibility of two rate hikes as soon as 2023. Core inflation is now estimated to run at 3% this year versus the previous forecast of 2.2%, which was projected back in March.
市場關注美聯儲聲明中的幾個項目，包括今年更高的通脹預期以及最快在 2023 年兩次加息的可能性。現在估計今年核心通脹率將達到 3%，而此前的預測為 2.2%，這是在 3 月份預測的。
Powell still maintained that inflation is transitory. "The problem right now is that the demand is very strong, and incomes are high," Powell told reporters on Wednesday. "If you look behind the headline numbers, you'll see that the incoming data are consistent with the view that prices that are driving that higher inflation is from categories that are being directly affected by the recovery from the pandemic and the reopening of the economy."
鮑威爾仍然堅持認為通脹是暫時的。“現在的問題是需求非常強勁，收入也很高，”鮑威爾週三對記者說。 “如果你看一下標題數字，你會發現傳入的數據與以下觀點是一致的，即推動通脹上升的價格來自受大流行複蘇和經濟重新開放直接影響的類別.”
Powell drew parallels between the transitory inflation and the surge in lumber prices, which are now settling down after a massive rally.
鮑威爾將暫時的通貨膨脹與木材價格的飆升相提並論，木材價格在大規模反彈後正在趨於平緩。
"Over time, these things driving up inflation will be temporary … The experience with lumber prices is illustrative of this. Prices that have moved up really quickly because of the shortages and bottlenecks should stop going up. And in some cases should actually go down. And we did see that in the case of lumber," he said. "Our expectation is that these high inflation readings that we're seeing now will start to abate. And it'll be like the lumber experience."
“隨著時間的推移，這些推高通脹的因素將是暫時的......木材價格的經驗說明了這一點。由於短缺和瓶頸而迅速上漲的價格應該停止上漲。在某些情況下實際上應該下降。我們確實在木材的情況下看到了這一點，”他說。 “我們的預期是，我們現在看到的這些高通脹數據將開始減弱。這就像木材的經歷一樣。”
Powell added that the U.S. might see the same situation play out in other categories, including used cars. "Used cars are going up because of strong demand and limited supply. But we do think it makes sense that it will stop and reverse," he said. The timing of that is uncertain, and so are the effects in the near term."
鮑威爾補充說，美國可能會在其他類別中看到同樣的情況，包括二手車。 “由於強勁的需求和有限的供應，二手車正在上漲。但我們確實認為它會停止並逆轉是有道理的，”他說。時間不確定，近期的影響也不確定。”
Powell also addressed the problem of labor shortages when asked about what full employment would look like in the post-pandemic world.
當被問及大流行後世界的充分就業會是什麼樣子時，鮑威爾還談到了勞動力短缺的問題。
He pointed out that what's holding back employment growth is a mix of factors, including a slew of retirement, the time it takes to find a new job, fears related to the COVID-19 infection, not all child care facilities being reopened yet, and the existing unemployment benefits.
他指出，阻礙就業增長的因素是多種因素，包括大量退休、找到新工作所需的時間、與 COVID-19 感染相關的恐懼、並非所有托兒設施都已重新開放，以及現有的失業救濟金。
"Unemployment insurance for 15 million people will end and either be diminished, and that may also encourage some to go back and take jobs," Powell said.
鮑威爾說：“1500 萬人的失業保險將終止，要么減少，這也可能鼓勵一些人回去工作。”
Overall, the Fed sees strong job creation building into the summer and going into the fall.
總體而言，美聯儲認為在夏季和秋季將創造強勁的就業機會。
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And the recovery, although still incomplete, remains strong, with real GDP on track to post the fastest rate of increase in decades, the Fed chair highlighted.
美聯儲主席強調，復甦雖然仍不完整，但依然強勁，實際 GDP 有望實現數十年來最快的增長。
Many of the questions Powell received were about tapering and the guidance around reducing the $120 billion a month of asset purchases.
鮑威爾收到的許多問題都是關於縮減規模以及關於減少每月 1200 億美元資產購買的指導。
"You can think of this meeting that we had as the 'talking about talking about' meeting, if you'd like," Powell said. "I now suggest that we retire that term, which has served its purpose."
鮑威爾說：“如果你願意，你可以把我們的這次會議看作是‘談論談論’的會議。”“我現在建議我們退休這個詞，它已經達到了它的目的。”
Powell noted that tapering would be discussed at future meetings, stressing that the Fed will provide advance notice before any concrete announcement is made. "The near-term thing is really about the path of asset purchases. We had a discussion about that today and expect to think about our progress at future meetings," he said.
鮑威爾指出，將在未來的會議上討論縮減規模，並強調美聯儲將在發布任何具體公告之前提前通知。他說“近期的事情實際上是關於資產購買的路徑。我們今天對此進行了討論，並希望在未來的會議上考慮我們的進展，”。
Future tapering will be "orderly, methodical, and transparent," he said. "We see real value in communicating well in advance."
他說，未來的縮減將是“有序、有條理和透明的”。“我們看到提前溝通的真正價值。”
When asked about the future rate hike path, Powell warned that the Fed's dot plot is not a plan and should be taken with a "big grain of salt."
當被問及未來的加息路徑時，鮑威爾警告稱，美聯儲的點陣圖不是計劃，應該“謹慎對待”。
"We did not have a discussion whether a lift-off is appropriate at any particular year. It is too early to talk about that," Powell stated. "The dot plot is not a great forecaster of future rate moves."
“我們沒有討論在任何特定年份升空是否合適。現在談論這個還為時過早，”鮑威爾說。 “點陣圖並不是未來利率走勢的好預測指標。”
By Anna Golubova
炫麗 Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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