2021-05-12 如果到6月黃金價格超過1,827美元，價格將回到歷史新高- 根據DailyFX資深分析師Vecchio
If gold is above $1,827 by June, prices are going back to all-time highs - DailyFX's Vecchio如果到6月黃金價格超過1,827美元，價格將回到歷史新高- 根據DailyFX資深分析師Vecchio
Neils Christensen
Tuesday May 11, 2021 16:09
A confluence of positive fundamental support and positive technical momentum could help push gold prices back above $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year, according to one market analyst.
一位市場分析師稱，積極的基本支撐和積極的技術動能的融合可能有助於到今年年底將金價推回至每盎司2,000美元上方。
In a recent interview with Kitco News, Christopher Vecchio, senior market strategist at DailFX.com, said that gold's move through $1,800 had breathed new life into the market. He added that technically, there is a lot of resistance between $1,830 and $1,850, but if the market can hold these levels for the next two months, then gold has a chance to push back to all-time highs before the end of the year.
DailFX.com的高級市場策略師Christopher Vecchio在最近接受Kitco News採訪時表示，金價突破1,800美元，為市場注入了新的活力。他補充說，從技術上講，在1,830美元和1,850美元之間有很多阻力位，但是如果市場可以在接下來的兩個月內保持這些水平，那麼黃金有機會在年底之前回升至歷史高位。
"We're a little bit ahead of pace where I thought we would be by now. But we're still on track. If we do continue to move higher from here, I could see us getting up to $1,850 or so before the market decides it wants to take a little bit of a breather," he said. "If we're through $1,837 by June 15, then we're going to have new highs at the end of the year."
“我們比我原本想的要提前一些。但是我們仍然步入正軌。如果我們確實繼續從這裡走高，我可以看到我們在市場上升至1,850美元左右。決定要稍作喘息，”他說。 “如果我們在6月15日之前達到1,837美元，那麼到今年年底我們將創下新高。”
Vecchio said that he is maintaining his year-end target of $2,100. His comments come as gold prices hold well above $1,800 an ounce. June gold futures last traded at $1,835.50 an ounce, down 0.11% on the day.
Vecchio表示，他將自己的年終目標維持在2,100美元。他發表上述評論之際，金價一直保持在每盎司1800美元以上。 6月黃金期貨最後交易價格為每盎司1,835.50美元，當日下跌0.11％。
"Gold has been coiling like a spring these last few months. It's storing all this potential energy. I think the kinetic energy breakout is coming soon," he said.
他說：“最近幾個月，黃金一直像彈簧一樣盤繞。它儲存了所有這些勢能。我認為動能突破即將到來。”
Not only did the gold market score a strong technical breakout, but Vecchio said that the market has strong fundamental support as inflation and uncertainty continue to dominate financial markets. He added that the precious metal would continue to benefit from falling real yields as investors and consumers start to pay attention to rising inflation pressures.
黃金市場不僅獲得了強勁的技術突破，而且維奇奧表示，由於通貨膨脹和不確定性繼續主導金融市場，該市場具有強大的基本支撐。他補充說，隨著投資者和消費者開始關注不斷上升的通脹壓力，貴金屬將繼續受益於下降的真實收益率。
Looking at consumer prices, Vecchio said that he wouldn't be surprised to see inflation rise 3% or 4% by the summer. However, he added that as hot as inflation gets, the Federal Reserve can't afford to raise interest rates at this point.
從消費者價格來看，韋基奧說，到夏天通脹率會上升3％或4％，他不會感到驚訝。不過，他補充說，由於通貨膨脹加劇，美聯準會目前無法承受加息的壓力。
Vecchio explained that the kinks in the global supply chain are just starting to be worked out, and this is going to be the time businesses will need access to the capital the Federal Reserve has pumped into the market.
Vecchio解釋說，全球供應鏈中的問題才剛剛開始得到解決，這將是企業需要美聯準會向市場注入資金的時候。
"If the fed started tightening right now at the precipice of the beginning of a recovery before a lot of these businesses have fixed their supply chain issues because of the pandemic, they risk creating a stagflation type scenario," he said. "I think the best thing the Fed can do right now is to just keep moving forward, and that will be good for gold."
他說：“如果美聯準會在經濟開始復甦之前就立即開始緊縮，而在許多企業因大流行而解決其供應鏈問題之前，他們就有可能造成滯漲型情況。” “我認為美聯準會現在能做的最好的事情就是繼續前進，這將對黃金有利。”
Although the U.S. economic recovery is starting to gain momentum, particularly as U.S. consumers start to buy more, Vecchio said that the outlook is still uncertain, and it is going to take some time to create sustainable momentum.
儘管美國經濟復甦開始增強勢頭，特別是隨著美國消費者開始購買更多的東西，韋基奧表示前景仍然不確定，要創造可持續的勢頭還需要一些時間。
Vecchio said that one area of inflation that he is watching that could impact the long-term trend is wage inflation. In April, average hourly wages grew 0.7%. Vecchio said that this could be the start of a long-term uptrend as workers start to demand more money.
維奇奧說，他正在觀察的可能影響長期趨勢的通貨膨脹領域是工資通貨膨脹。四月份，平均小時工資增長了0.7％。維奇奧說，隨著工人開始要求更多的錢，這可能是長期趨勢的開始。
"We just had a pandemic where we were running around, putting up signs in our front yard, supporting essential workers," he said. "And now these people are being told to go back to work because they're low skill. But these workers are now saying: 'No, we're not low-skilled workers. We're essential workers. And if we're so essential to your business, you should pay us more.' People aren't going to settle anymore."
他說：“我們只是在大範圍奔跑而流行，在我們的前院張貼標誌，為必要的工人提供支持。” “現在，這些人被告知要回去工作，因為他們的技能低下。但是這些工人現在在說：'不，我們不是低技能的工人。我們是必不可少的工人。對於您的業務至關重要，您應該向我們支付更多費用。”人們不會再安定下來了。”
By Neils Christensen
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Kitco News
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