2021-04-27 2020年有大量的白銀供給，但對於投資者而言卻不是正確“形態”的白銀-Metals Focus
There was plenty of silver in 2020 but not in the right ‘form’ for investors - Metals Focus
2020年有大量的白銀供給，但對於投資者而言卻不是正確“形態”的白銀-Metals Focus
Monday April 26, 2021 17:37
Despite global mine closures in early 2020 and historic investment demand, the silver market actually saw its biggest surplus on record, according to the latest report from the Silver Institute, which Metals Focus conducted.
根據Metals Focus進行的白銀研究所（Silver Institute）的最新報告，儘管2020年初全球礦場關閉以及歷史性的投資需求，但白銀市場實際上還是有記錄以來最大的盈餘。
The U.K.-based precious metals research firm noted a significant drop in supply last year as mines were forced to close due to the COVID-19 pandemic; however, the drop in supply was overshadowed by the collapse of the global economy as governments imposed strict lockdown measures in mid-March.
這家總部位於英國的貴金屬研究公司指出，由於COVID-19大流行導致礦山被迫關閉，去年的供應量大幅下降。但是，由於政府在3月中旬採取了嚴格的封鎖措施，全球經濟的崩潰掩蓋了供應量的下降。
“When you had wide-spread lockdowns, this really hit the consumer electronics side, and that is one of the reasons why we saw a decline in silver ’s industrial demand,” said Phil Newman, managing director of Metals Focus, in an interview with Kitco News.
Metals Focus董事總經理Phil Newman在接受Kitco新聞采訪時表示：“當您面臨廣泛的封鎖時，這確實觸及了消費電子領域，這就是我們看到白銀工業需求下降的原因之一。”
Silver supply in 2020 totaled 976.20 million ounces, a drop of 4% compared to 2019. Meanwhile, total demand dropped 896.10 million ounces, down 10% from 2018.
2020年白銀供應總量為9.762億盎司，比2019年下降4％。同時，總需求下降了89610萬盎司，比2018年下降了10％。
According to the report, the silver supply increased 319% last year. “The largest silver market surplus since at least 2010, the earliest year for which Metals Focus tracks data,” the report said.
根據該報告，去年白銀供應量增加了319％。報告稱：“至少自2010年以來最大的白銀市場盈餘，這是Metals Focus追踪數據的最早年份。”
Although industrial demand suffered in 2020, investment demand reached historic levels. Investment demand for silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) took global holdings above one billion ounces for the first time since their introduction in 2006, the report said.
儘管2020年工業需求下降，但投資需求達到歷史高點水平。報告稱，自2006年推出以來，對銀支持的交易所交易產品（ETP）的投資需求首次使全球持有量超過10億盎司。
“The growth in ETP holdings just reflects the improving investor sentiment in precious metals,” said Newman.
紐曼說：“ ETP持有量的增長恰好反映出投資者對貴金屬的信心有所改善。”
At the same time, strong demand for silver bars and coins pushed physical investment demand to a four-year high.
同時，對銀條和銀幣的強勁需求將實物投資需求推至四年高點。
Newman said that although weak industrial demand created a significant surplus in silver last year, the metal was in the “wrong form,” which led to a significant supply crunch in investment markets.
紐曼說，儘管去年工業需求疲軟造成白銀大量過剩，但這種金屬處於“錯誤形態”，這導致投資市場出現嚴重的供應緊縮。
“If you look at stocks of silver held in London, in LBMA vaults, you would see elevated levels there. If you look at silver held in the COMEX you would see very large volumes held there as well. But that is not in the form retail investors are buying,” he said. “There has simply been a shortage of silver in the right form, in the right location.”
“如果您查看倫敦，倫敦金銀市場協會金庫中的白銀庫存，那裡的銀價會上升。如果您看一下COMEX中持有的白銀，那麼您還會看到非常大的持有量。但這並不是散戶投資者購買的形式。”他說。 “在正確的位置，正確的型態，根本就缺乏銀。”
Newman added that because of production constraints, there is only so much silver mints can turn out into products.
紐曼補充說，由於生產限制，只有極少數幾間的銀鑄造廠能將銀製成產品。
“The mints are working overtime to get products out as quickly as possible,” he said. “A lot of product is being produced, but it ’s just not enough.”
他說：“造幣廠正在加班，以盡快將產品運出。他們正在生產很多產品，但還不夠。”
Newman also noted that it takes weeks to transfer silver stored in London to be shipped to New York and vice versa.
紐曼還指出，將倫敦存儲的白銀轉移到紐約要花費數週的時間，反之亦然。
As for the failed silver short-squeeze that briefly drove prices to $30 an ounce at the start of the year, Newman said that from the beginning of the social-media frenzy, they warned investors that it wasn ’t going to work.
至於失敗的白銀空頭壓榨，導致年初銀價短暫推升至每盎司30美元，紐曼說，從社交媒體狂熱的開始，他們就警告投資者，這是行不通的。
“The short positions were just not that sizeable,” he said. “We saw strong lows into ETF and into coins and bars. The price reaction we saw reflected that buying. The reason it ran out of steam is that the silver the market is a lot deeper.”
他說：“空頭頭寸沒有那麼大。” “我們看到ETF以及銀幣和銀條的低點。我們看到的價格反應反映了這種購買。之所以沒持續推升，是因為市場上的白銀要深得太多。”
Newman added that for a short-squeeze to be successful in the precious metals market, the buying frenzy has to be sustained for days and even weeks.
紐曼補充說，要想在貴金屬市場上取得成功，就必須持續幾天甚至幾週的購買狂潮。
Looking at 2021, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus are expecting supply and demand to significantly pick up. For this year, silver supply is expected to reach 1.056 billion ounces, up 8% from 2020. At the same time, demand is expected to be at 1.036 billion ounces, a 15% increase from last year.
展望2021年，白銀研究所和金屬聚焦預計供需將顯著回升。今年，白銀供應量有望達到10.56億盎司，比2020年增長8％。與此同時，需求量有望達到10.36億盎司，比去年增長15％。
By Kitco News
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引用來源: Kitco News
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